ABSTRACT
The COVID-19 pandemic escalated in almost all parts of the world over a very short period of time. The speed of the spread was determined by the degree of mobility of the population, while the risk of severe illness or death depended on the population’s demographic characteristics, population health status, and the capacity of the health system to treat patients. This paper aims to assess spatio-temporal patterns of patients with COVID-19 in Serbia at the early stage and whether these patterns are linked to valid public health measures that were enforced during this period. The study adopted the local Moran’s index to identify the spatial grouping of the number of infected at a municipality level and joinpoint regression analysis to identify whether and when statistically significant changes occurred to the number of infected by gender and age groups, and to the number of deaths in the entire population. The results show the polarisation of the spatial grouping of the number of infected. Considering the change in the trend in the number of infected between genders, no significant difference was noticeable. When the age-gender categories of infected were examined, the differences became more significant. In addition, changes in the trend were associated with the tightening or loosening of public health measures. © 2022 Demographic Research Centre. All rights reserved.
ABSTRACT
Internal migration is an essential part of regional population change. Driven by various determinants, internal migration has been unequal across time and space. Migration responses to the changes in societal circumstances make it relevant to investigate the spatial and temporal dimension of internal migration in Serbia before and in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak. The research aims to identify to what extent and in what way the pandemic has changed the magnitude and geographical patterns of internal migration in Serbia. The study is based on additionally processed official statistics on internal migration for the period 2018–2020, from March to December for each year, at the municipal, district (oblast, plural—oblasti), and regional levels. These are aggregate administrative data on usual residence registration by month. The derived data on the net migration rate is cartographically presented using the classification method natural Breaks (Jenks). Spatial dependence was assessed applying the spatial autocorrelation method, based on the Local Moran statistic. The results revealed that the pandemic affected not only the volume of internal migration but also its spatial patterns. The findings present new insights on the role of internal migration in reallocation of population across Serbia before and during the COVID-19 pandemic while underlying the importance of further research to deepen the understanding of internal migration trends upon the COVID-19 outbreak. © 2022, Geographical Institute "Jovan Cviji" of the Serbian Academy of Sciences and Arts. All rights reserved.